Few American presidents have been greeted with the enthusiasm Europe
demonstrated for Barack Obama on his election. In part, it was a
reaction against his predecessor -- George W. was never loved in the EU
-- but there was also the feeling that Obama was a genuine
multilateralist.
Europeans, who welcomed Obama as the candidate
of change, didn't expect him to agree with them on everything, but they
believed that he would at least listen to them.
So now that the
showroom gloss is beginning to wear off Obama at home, now that U.S.
poll respondents are indicating that the first dents and scratches are
visible in the previously gleaming bodywork, how is he being seen
between Ljubljana and Lisbon?
In Europe's capitals, as in many
places, there was something of a gulp when the Nobel Peace Prize was
announced, a feeling that it was being bestowed in hope of what was to
come rather than in recognition of what had been achieved.
That said, Obama
remains far more popular personally than Bush, whose Iraq war adventure
with the eager assistance of British Prime Minister Tony Blair led to
splits among Europe's leaders. On the diplomatic circuit, the movers
and shakers will still fight for invitations whenever the president
swings through European cities.
On the plus side, there was a big
welcome, except perhaps among some of the Eastern European states, when
the president scrapped the missile defense plans with installations in
Poland and the Czech Republic, indicating that he wanted to talk to
Moscow rather than lob bricks over their neighbor's wall.
Europeans,
who don't possess America's military might and who nearly always, in
Winston Churchill's words, prefer "jaw, jaw to war, war," also welcomed
Obama's early overture to Iran indicating that if Teheran would
unclench its fist, then America was ready to extend its hand.
After
the strong influence the climate change deniers appeared to have with
the previous administration, Europeans were especially pleased that
Obama said he would come to the climate summit in Copenhagen, Denmark.
They were impressed with the way he helped to broker a deal at the G20
summit in London in April, something he managed to do without throwing
his weight around.
It is a measure of the president's continued
pulling power that the Europeans, who have seemingly grudged every
extra pair of boots the NATO secretary general has persuaded them to
dispatch up until now, are to stump up around 7,000 additional troops
for the war in Afghanistan alongside the 30,000 more committed by a
president who has now more than doubled the U.S. contingent there.
But while Europe's
diplomats and politicians know that the president, too, has to strike
political balances, and while they recognize that shared values across
the Atlantic won't always mean shared interests, a few niggles are
creeping in.
For all the talk about resetting relations between
Washington and Moscow, the Europeans are worried that the crucial
December 1 deadline passed without a deal renewing the Strategic Arms
Reduction Treaty for monitoring nuclear arsenals.
On
Afghanistan, Europe's political leaders were muttering behind the
scenes as the president took a long time making up his mind about the
extra troops. To them, he seemed to be dithering; and with anti-war
opinion building in their own backyards, he made their own lives more
difficult while they awaited his decision.
Some criticism has
come into the open. For example, Bob Ainsworth, Britain's defense
minister, has refused to commit the U.S.'s leading ally in Afghanistan
to a pullout timetable beginning with the president's promised date of
July 2011.
Paddy Ashdown, who knows a bit about these things as
the international community's former high representative in Bosnia,
reckons that the president failed to produce a political strategy to go
along with his military one.
Obama, said Lord Ashdown, was
trying to appeal simultaneously to two different audiences. He wanted
to tell the folks back home in Peoria, Illinois, that the troops would
be home in 18 months, and he wanted to tell the Taliban that an extra
30,000 troops were on their way to make life tough for them. The
problem was that the folks back home would focus most on the extra
30,000 troops going out, and the Taliban would focus on the fact that
they would start leaving in 18 months.
Taliban leader Mullah
Omar is supposed to have said: "The enemy has the watches; we have the
time." Insurgents tend to have a longer time scale than democratic
politicians, who only too soon will be facing electors once more.
The
Europeans, while they like much about Obama's style, are growing just a
little uneasy about how things will pan out under his presidency.
"It's
early days, but perhaps a little less talk and a little more do might
be welcome," one former Downing Street insider told me.
They
weren't expecting Superman in the White House, certainly not at a time
of major economic recession. They still feel that the new president is
a man they can talk to. But they can see that power is moving
inexorably from the the G8 to the G20, where Europe's influence will be
diluted by major new players like China and India. They may become a
little sensitive as the president is seen to cozy up to the new players.
The
Europeans also can read the Pew surveys in the U.S. showing that a
greater proportion of Americans would like their nation to pull back
from a world role and "mind its own business" than did so even during
the Vietnam war. They will watch Obama now to see how he resists the
pressures of isolationism.
The slight unease one senses now in
Europe's capitals is, in a sense, less a personal slippage for Obama
than a growing recognition of the weakness of a debt-ridden U.S.
economy and of the inability of the world's strongest military power to
contain Islamic insurgencies or to find and dispose of Osama bin Laden
and Mullah Omar eight years after the mass murders of 9/11.
The
U.S. may still have the military might. But even America has to look at
the costs column these days. And when the likes of French President
Nicolas Sarkozy inveigh against the evils of the "Anglo-Saxon economic
model," they have Wall Street just as much in mind as they do the city
of London.
Obama, though, doesn't have to worry yet about his personal popularity in Europe. He remains a beacon of hope to many Europeans.
And
he will probably remain rather more popular in Europe than he is at
home because it is in tackling the back-pocket issues with their own
electorates -- like health care -- that most politicians make their
enemies.
That may, however, be little
consolation to a president with a second term to win in due course.
Blair, after all, remained hugely popular in the U.S. But so
discredited did he become back home that he was forced to step down and
hand over power to Gordon Brown.