Home Economics Watch Live: Paul Ryan Holds Press Conference On What Happens Next

Watch Live: Paul Ryan Holds Press Conference On What Happens Next

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Paul Ryan and GOP leaders are holding a press conference to discuss next steps in the aftermath of Friday’s failure to repeal Obamacare, and as CBS reports, among other discussion topics, the GOP is currently contemplating ways to revive the repeal of Obamacare, with CNN adding that Ryan may potentially re-engage the Freedom Caucus.

Speaker Paul Ryan told GOP donors Monday that the House will continue pursuing health care reform despite Republicans’ failure to pass legislation last week to repeal and replace Obamacare as they had promised to do, according to The Washington Post. The Wisconsin Republican spoke to donors on a phone call through his political organization, the report said, and he explained that they would work on health care on “two tracks.”

“We are going to keep getting at this thing,” Ryan said, according to the Post, which obtained a recording of the call. “We’re not going to just all of a sudden abandon health care and move on to the rest. We are going to move on with rest of our agenda, keep that on track, while we work the health care problem. . . . It’s just that valuable, that important.”

CNN added the Freedom Caucus’ report:

Elsewhere, Republican Rep. Mo Brooks, a member of the House Freedom Caucus, said he’s prepared to move forward with a discharge petition on his repeal-only bill if movement does not occur on Obamacare repeal and replace. Brooks says House Speaker Paul Ryan is talking about moving forward with health care, and his understanding is that it is “fairly immediate” plan. Brooks says if that doesn’t happen, he’d file the discharge petition, which would compel a vote if a majority of House members sign on to it. That said, as Bloomberg adds, discharge petitions rarely succeed, as they’re usually a minority tactic and majority-party members tend to be reluctant to buck leadership that publicly

It is unclear if the market will be able to quickly unspin its latest narrative: recall that over the past 48 hours, the “plot” was revised and now Trump’s ability to focus solely on tax reform while leaving  healthcare reform has been spun as positive for stocks.

Watch the press conference live below:

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As reported yesterday, here is Barclays’ take on what the revised Trump agenda looks like at this moment.

Healthcare may negatively affect tax reform negotiation, as the GOP needs to transition from a party of opposition to a party that governs.

  • Healthcare: House delays American Health Care Act (AHCA) – The GOP’s goal is to minimize intra-party struggles, re-focus on comprehensive tax reform, and leave the option to revisit healthcare
    • GOP calls to repeal and replace ACA over the past seven years were more political rhetoric than an actual plan. GOP has not resolved an internal dispute with healthcare’s three-legged stool – the individual mandate, providing subsidies, and enforcing the guarantee for pre-existing conditions – as removing any one of them requires trade-offs between cost and coverage
    • We expect an intense intra-GOP fight, especially between the president and Speaker Ryan. There are concerns that the GOP domestic policy agenda could dissolve, but we think this delay will increase efforts to pass tax reform (or targeted tax cuts) before the Nov 2018 mid-term elections
  • Tax Reform or Tax Cuts: GOP to re-focus immediately on taxes and pursue comprehensive reform, with a goal of passing legislation by August, well before the 2018 mid-terms
    • Outlook: Comprehensive tax reform will very likely meet significant obstacles, as there are limited revenue raisers to offset the proposed substantial tax cuts. We think tax reform could evolve to tax cuts (corporate rates possibly from 35% to 20-30%) and a repatriation of foreign earnings (potentially taxed at 8-15%). The House-proposed border adjustment tax (BAT) faces hurdles, given concerns of price increases, WTO compliance, and possible domestic job losses. Current costs of individual tax cuts will likely alarm fiscal hawks; we expect a more muted plan than the current one
  • Trade: Administration aims to implement protectionist measures (eg, tariffs), as they view this form of economic nationalism as spurring long-term growth
    • NAFTA process has started; expect formal notice to trading partners shortly



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