Home Economics Traders Buy The F**king Thermonuclear War Threat Dip

Traders Buy The F**king Thermonuclear War Threat Dip

58
SHARE


Just seemed appropriate…

 

Soft data rolled over today (as Empired Fed and Homebuilder confidence dropped) but one glance at the following chart shows the “odd one out”

 

After lackluster U.S. retail sales and inflation data on April 14, as well as heightened geopolitical concerns, the bond market is skeptical the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates another two times in 2017, as forecast by central bank officials in the so-called dot plot. Implied rates on the fed fund futures curve are fully pricing in a September rate increase, with about a 22 percent chance of another by year-end, according to BMO strategists Ian Lyngen and Aaron Kohli.

“Despite criticism of the Fed’s March rate hike, they certainly now look very prudent to have put at least one rate hike on the books this calendar year before the series of risks and economic headwinds picked up,” the pair wrote Monday.

And that says nothing about the sheer panic in European FX hedges…

 

Oh and then there’s the debt ceiling (which has now inverted the front of the Bill curve)…

 

But nothing can stop a total VIX slam and sure enough, as VIX’s term structure collapses worryingly, stocks were lifted majestically… helped also by a USDJPY run stop to 109.00…

 

Stocks fooled by VIX segmentation…

 

From Thursday’s close, Stocks were suddenly bid as bonds, gold, and crude tumbled…

 

But Gold remains the safe haven…

 

On the day all the major indices were higher…Trannies and Small Caps melted up in a masive short-squeeze

 

Erasing Thursday losses…

 

Big short squeze at the open and then on Mnuchin saying tax reform won’t happen soon!!

 

So to summarize:

  • US Hard data greatly disappoints
  • US Soft data rolls over
  • French election odds narrow further – anyone’s game and hedges at EU crisis highs
  • Debt Ceiling looms (and curve inverted)
  • North Korea threatens weekly missile tests guaranteeing provocation
  • US sends 2 more aicrcraft carriers to Korean Peninsula
  • Oil prices tumble
  • Mnuchin says a strong dollar is a bad thing (but machines misinterpret)

And Stocks have their best day in 6 weeks!

That spike was the spech to congress jump that ended the bank rally.

The machines did their best to rally The Dow above its 50DMA proving that US stocks are the real safe haven of the world, right?

 

SNAP seriously!!

 

Dollar started to rise when Mnuchin FT piece hit “Strong Dollar Over Short-Period Of Time Is Hurting US Economy” which the machines misintepreted…

 

The Turkish Lira surged 2% overnight after Erdogan’s “successful” referendum, but then started to tumble as OECD and US questioned voiting irregularities…

 

Treasury yields rose on the day… on relief that thermonuclear war did not break out? Notice bonds did begin to really into the last few minutes of the day.

 

Stocks and bonds glued tick for tick…

 

Small bounce back higher in the Trumpflation trades wtih 2s30s and EDZ7EDZ8 steeper (but very marginal)

 

Crude tumbled back to a $52 handle, RBOB slid lower and gold sold off as the USD lifted in the afternoon…

 

Finally there’s this…



Source link