Home Economics Global Reflation Trade In Trouble: Chinese Economic Data Plunges To 6-Month Lows...

Global Reflation Trade In Trouble: Chinese Economic Data Plunges To 6-Month Lows As New Orders Dry Up

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New Orders for Manufacturing and Services sectors of the economy tumbled to their lowest levels in at least 6 months, weighing down both PMIs to their lowest levels since October 2016. After Q1’s record surge in new credit creation, it appears the rapid tightening in China’s financial conditions is already having an impact on the real economy (as well as the bond and stock market).

As a reminder, for the first quarter, TSF reached a new record high 6.93 trillion yuan – equivalent to the size of Mexico’s economy – and well above last year’s first quarter total. At today’s Yuan exchange rate, China’s credit creation in Q1 amounted to just over 1 trillion US dollars.

 

And since then PMIs have plunged from multi-year high to six-month lows… and it’s broad-based…

 

The manufacturing data shows and sudden sharp drop in New Orders, output prices (commodity crash), and

 

But Services data is even worse – the 4th month of contraction in employment and a drop in doemstic and export new orders…

 

The global engine of reflation just hit a wall…



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