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Is the bubble only starting?

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READY for a melt-up? Investors are generally upbeat about the prospects for equity markets this year but one intrepid fund manager thinks it is likely that American share prices could rise 50% in the next six months to two years. Perhaps the biggest surprise is the identity of that pundit: Jeremy Grantham.

Mr Grantham, one of the founders of the fund managment group GMO, is best known for a cautious approach to valuations; he was one of those who got out of the dotcom boom well before the top. His firm’s most recent prediction for seven-year returns are for an annual loss of 2% from US largecap equities; indeed among all the asset categories, only cash and emerging market equities and bonds and cash are expected to produce a positive real return over the seven-year period. 

So how can Mr Grantham justify his views? He does not resile from…Continue reading



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